Updated on March 25, 2019 10:15:34 AM EDT
There is nothing of importance set for release today, the only empty day of the week. The rest of the week brings us six economic reports to watch along with two potentially relevant Treasury auctions. None of the reports are considered to be key releases, but several carry enough significance to alter mortgage rates if they show any surprises.
Tomorrow has the first report of the week with Februarys Housing Starts data at 8:30 AM ET. This report tracks construction starts of new housing and doesnt usually cause much movement in mortgage rates. It is considered one of the least important reports we see each month but is expected to show a decline in new starts, indicating softness in the housing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in new starts. However, unless we see a large variance from forecasts the data likely will not lead to a noticeable move in mortgage pricing.
Marchs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted tomorrow morning. The New York-based Conference Board will release this index at 10:00 AM ET. It gives us an indication of consumers willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that consumer confidence in their own financial situation is falling, it would indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. If it reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell as economic growth may rise, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 132.0 up from Februarys 131.4 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.
Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week with three reports scheduled. However, as we saw last week, the markets can get volatile at any time. Stocks will also help dictate bond direction this week. This could be the start of a very active and volatile period for the markets. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing in the near future and still floating an interest rate.
©Mortgage Commentary 2019